Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking. Further, we argue that a slowing economy is very different than a shrinking one. Economy Slowing, Not Shrinking We believe […]
Bull Market Hangs by a Thread
The bull market that began in March of 2020 came dangerously close to an end. From March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 Index gained 114% (excluding dividends). From that January 3 closing high through the recent low on May 19, the S&P 500 fell nearly 19%, narrowly avoiding the level at […]
Looking Through the Clouds
At the risk of sounding cliché, making the case for stocks to stage a second half rally back to the prior highs requires investors to see through some heavy cloud cover. If you prefer another market cliché, it’s times like these when investors need a crystal ball. We fully acknowledge how tough it is to […]
Dawn of a New Era for Core Bonds
Core bond investors have experienced the worst start to the year ever. However tough this year has been so far though (and it has been tough), the potential for future returns has improved meaningfully, in our view. Starting yields tend to be a good predictor of future returns and have become more attractive in a […]
Defined Benefit Plans: An Attractive Option for Small Businesses
Defined benefit pension plans may still be an attractive retirement benefit option for small employers. This is especially true for small business owners who have been too busy growing their businesses to plan for their retirement. Because of their late start, they must make up for lost time. A defined benefit plan may be just […]
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